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Marc Andreessen 谈科技业的分合

你可以用它来理解 Yo,也可以用它来观察 Apple VS Google。非常好的观点。

  • 1/A story of unbundling in the tech industry: 20 years of consumer Internet evolution -- t.co/qUCWjc4wkF
  • 2/One upon a time there was AOL, which was a completely integrated Internet access/information/communication service.
  • 3/Then Yahoo came along and unbundled the information/communication parts like email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes from the access service.
  • 4/One of the things you could do on Yahoo was search, then Google came along and unbundled that.
  • 5/You can search for anything on Google, including people; Facebook came along with a much better way to just search for people.
  • 6/Three things you can do on Facebook are messaging, photo sharing, and status updates; therefore Whatsapp, Instagram, and Twitter.
  • 7/And yes, Yo unbundles the creation & existence of a message from the contents of a message, unbundling Whatsapp and Twitter :-).
  • 8/Ev Williams (@ev) is the modern genius of this concept--playing out in our industry continuously since the 1950's. t.co/p6DzO6tGbL
  • 9/The part people often miss is that you can get extremely powerful second/third order effects at each step with his pattern.
  • 10/The entrepreneurs generally have a pretty good sense of this when they're doing it, but it doesn't become clear to others until later.
  • 11/This is a pattern what we love to fund: unbundle X from Y, but then use the liberation of X as leverage to do amazing new things with X.
  • 12/And the howls of press and analyst outrage at the apparent stupidity of each unbundling are very helpful for keeping valuations down :-).

第二段:

  • 1/The flip side of unbundling: Later on, the unbundlers tend to try to rebundle in the image of whatever they unbundled.
  • 2/So Yahoo adds an ISP (t.co/JrlrVoY9Vo), and Google adds email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes.
  • 3/Twitter changes its user profile page to look more like Facebook :-).
  • 4/Sun unbundled DEC with commodity components, then re-bundled into a proprietary computing stack just like DEC w/Solaris, Sparc, etc.
  • 5/Microsoft likewise unbundled DEC minicomputers w/PC OS + tools, then rebundled into DEC-like integrated stack now including hardware (!).
  • 6/Paraphrasing Harvey Dent: "You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the company you first competed with."
  • 7/And then sometimes the rebundlers realize what they're doing and try to reverse course. E.g. Microsoft building apps for iOS & Android.
  • 8/And thus the cycle of life repeats with yet more unbundling :-).

第三段:


  • 1/Late night tweetstorm addendum to earlier series on unbundling (t.co/ecgBveoiMj) and rebundling (t.co/0fw9alDKh3)
  • 2/Younger followers asked me to expand on DEC/Sun/Microsoft unbundling: older history, therefore useful to study as precedent for our time.
  • 3/Once upon a time (1950s-1960s), businesses mostly bought computers from IBM, & IBM also bundled in all the software & services you'd need.
  • 4/IBM bundled offerings were extremely expensive, while demand for computers spread to departments & smaller businesses who had less $.
  • 5/So DEC unbundled the computer itself from the total bundle & sold it for less $ to customers who could then write their own software.
  • 6/But a DEC computer itself was a bundle of proprietary components: VAX hardware, VMS operating system, RDB database, etc.
  • 7/In the 80's, Sun came along & sold a similar power computer to DEC's for 1/4 the cost w/unbundled components: Unix OS + Motorola chips.
  • 8/DEC responded by going upmarket & becoming more like IBM; Sun & other Unix workstation vendors chewed through their market + grew it more.
  • 9/Critical point: At point when DEC started to tip over, its integrated offering was as close to perfect as our industry will ever see.
  • 10/Ask people who were working then (like me) and they'll tell you to this day that they miss VAX/VMS & how productive they could be on it.
  • 11/Meanwhile Microsoft & Intel came along and fully implemented the unbundled low-cost computer, first PCs and then Windows-based servers.
  • 12/Sun responded to Microsoft/Intel by rebundling: Rebuilding itself in DEC's image with Sparc chip, Solaris OS -- proprietary HW+SW stack.
  • 13/Again, Sun got close to perfection as an integrated system when unbundled Microsoft+Intel & Linux+Intel went broad & forced sale of co.
  • 14/Picking up thread with Microsoft: Microsoft has spent last 15 years rebundling, rebuilding itself in DEC's image much like Sun. Now + HW!
  • 15/Once again, bundled Microsoft stack very close to perfect just as it comes under attack from next unbundling wave: mobile + cloud.
  • 16/Fascinating twist: Under new leadership, Microsoft 2014 now committed to unbundling -- full app + cloud support for iOS, Android, Linux!
  • 17/Microsoft taking new unbundling strategy offensively vs new titans who are bundling as fast as possible! Apple, Google, Amazon, Oracle.
  • 18/The point? I don't know much about what our industry will look like in 50 years, but I'm quite confident these same dynamics will apply.

第四段:

  • My best guess: Is it truly in service of making the best product?
  • My partners and I think Christensen theory on disruption & interplay of horizontal & vertical structures needs a new part...
  • His analysis of how products go from integrated to horizontally disaggregated makes total sense, however...
  • At some point the horizontally disaggregated industry (always? sometimes?) loses the plot & makes crappy final products.
  • That's when a rebundled superior product can win, against all expert predictions. Customers do care & will change.
  • Apple is the ultimate case study. EVERY outside observer said they had to unbundle when Steve decided to rebundle.
  • How much was his genius vs how much was PC industry products had unacceptably degraded over its 20 year run? Who can tell?
  • 编辑于 2014-10-15

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