你可以用它来理解 Yo，也可以用它来观察 Apple VS Google。非常好的观点。
- 1/A story of unbundling in the tech industry: 20 years of consumer Internet evolution -- http://t.co/qUCWjc4wkF
- 2/One upon a time there was AOL, which was a completely integrated Internet access/information/communication service.
- 3/Then Yahoo came along and unbundled the information/communication parts like email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes from the access service.
- 4/One of the things you could do on Yahoo was search, then Google came along and unbundled that.
- 5/You can search for anything on Google, including people; Facebook came along with a much better way to just search for people.
- 6/Three things you can do on Facebook are messaging, photo sharing, and status updates; therefore Whatsapp, Instagram, and Twitter.
- 7/And yes, Yo unbundles the creation & existence of a message from the contents of a message, unbundling Whatsapp and Twitter :-).
- 8/Ev Williams (@ev) is the modern genius of this concept--playing out in our industry continuously since the 1950's. http://t.co/p6DzO6tGbL
- 9/The part people often miss is that you can get extremely powerful second/third order effects at each step with his pattern.
- 10/The entrepreneurs generally have a pretty good sense of this when they're doing it, but it doesn't become clear to others until later.
- 11/This is a pattern what we love to fund: unbundle X from Y, but then use the liberation of X as leverage to do amazing new things with X.
- 12/And the howls of press and analyst outrage at the apparent stupidity of each unbundling are very helpful for keeping valuations down :-).
- 1/The flip side of unbundling: Later on, the unbundlers tend to try to rebundle in the image of whatever they unbundled.
- 2/So Yahoo adds an ISP (https://t.co/JrlrVoY9Vo), and Google adds email/IM/sports-scores/stock-quotes.
- 3/Twitter changes its user profile page to look more like Facebook :-).
- 4/Sun unbundled DEC with commodity components, then re-bundled into a proprietary computing stack just like DEC w/Solaris, Sparc, etc.
- 5/Microsoft likewise unbundled DEC minicomputers w/PC OS + tools, then rebundled into DEC-like integrated stack now including hardware (!).
- 6/Paraphrasing Harvey Dent: "You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the company you first competed with."
- 7/And then sometimes the rebundlers realize what they're doing and try to reverse course. E.g. Microsoft building apps for iOS & Android.
- 8/And thus the cycle of life repeats with yet more unbundling :-).
- 1/Late night tweetstorm addendum to earlier series on unbundling (https://t.co/ecgBveoiMj) and rebundling (https://t.co/0fw9alDKh3)...
- 2/Younger followers asked me to expand on DEC/Sun/Microsoft unbundling: older history, therefore useful to study as precedent for our time.
- 3/Once upon a time (1950s-1960s), businesses mostly bought computers from IBM, & IBM also bundled in all the software & services you'd need.
- 4/IBM bundled offerings were extremely expensive, while demand for computers spread to departments & smaller businesses who had less $.
- 5/So DEC unbundled the computer itself from the total bundle & sold it for less $ to customers who could then write their own software.
- 6/But a DEC computer itself was a bundle of proprietary components: VAX hardware, VMS operating system, RDB database, etc.
- 7/In the 80's, Sun came along & sold a similar power computer to DEC's for 1/4 the cost w/unbundled components: Unix OS + Motorola chips.
- 8/DEC responded by going upmarket & becoming more like IBM; Sun & other Unix workstation vendors chewed through their market + grew it more.
- 9/Critical point: At point when DEC started to tip over, its integrated offering was as close to perfect as our industry will ever see.
- 10/Ask people who were working then (like me) and they'll tell you to this day that they miss VAX/VMS & how productive they could be on it.
- 11/Meanwhile Microsoft & Intel came along and fully implemented the unbundled low-cost computer, first PCs and then Windows-based servers.
- 12/Sun responded to Microsoft/Intel by rebundling: Rebuilding itself in DEC's image with Sparc chip, Solaris OS -- proprietary HW+SW stack.
- 13/Again, Sun got close to perfection as an integrated system when unbundled Microsoft+Intel & Linux+Intel went broad & forced sale of co.
- 14/Picking up thread with Microsoft: Microsoft has spent last 15 years rebundling, rebuilding itself in DEC's image much like Sun. Now + HW!
- 15/Once again, bundled Microsoft stack very close to perfect just as it comes under attack from next unbundling wave: mobile + cloud.
- 16/Fascinating twist: Under new leadership, Microsoft 2014 now committed to unbundling -- full app + cloud support for iOS, Android, Linux!
- 17/Microsoft taking new unbundling strategy offensively vs new titans who are bundling as fast as possible! Apple, Google, Amazon, Oracle.
- 18/The point? I don't know much about what our industry will look like in 50 years, but I'm quite confident these same dynamics will apply.
My best guess: Is it truly in service of making the best product? My partners and I think Christensen theory on disruption & interplay of horizontal & vertical structures needs a new part... His analysis of how products go from integrated to horizontally disaggregated makes total sense, however... At some point the horizontally disaggregated industry (always? sometimes?) loses the plot & makes crappy final products. That's when a rebundled superior product can win, against all expert predictions. Customers do care & will change. Apple is the ultimate case study. EVERY outside observer said they had to unbundle when Steve decided to rebundle. How much was his genius vs how much was PC industry products had unacceptably degraded over its 20 year run? Who can tell?