会员通信:Biden 走了,Ryan 来了

会员通信:Biden 走了,Ryan 来了

Biden 走了,Ryan 来了

昨天讲了 Biden 不参加选举,这或许意味着他的政治生涯在副总统任期结束后,就会多少划上终点了吧。(虽然 Hillary 很没意思地在「讣告」——木遥语——里说,Biden 的政治生涯还没有结束。)

另一边,和 Biden 在 2014 年大选中唱对手戏的 Paul Ryan,周四宣布他终于要正式冲击议长的王座了

关于议长之争,已多次提到,在 10 月 9 日的会员通讯中,我们提到了 Paul Ryan 不想出选,可让这事变得一团糟的是 Freedom Caucus。

与 Biden 正相反,Ryan 不想出选是因为自己太年轻了,孩子还小:

Ryan said he did not want the job of speaker when Boehner stepped down because he had young children. And even those members who said they thought he would be the best person for the job acknowledged that accepting it might not be the best thing for him personally.

这有点像 Obama。在第一任期里,因为每周固定有五天要陪伴孩子和家人吃晚饭,所以很多应酬金主的晚宴都不去参加,搞得大家怨声载道。

Ryan 有多年轻?据统计,Ryan 如果当上议长,将是 1875 年以来最年轻的议长

In the event Ryan can be convinced to run for Speaker this month and wins the post, he would be 45 years, 9 months, and 1 day old – younger than each of the last 26 Speakers from Democrat Michael Kerr of Indiana in 1875 through Boehner.

对 Ryan 来说,他未成年时父亲就因家庭性心脏病去逝,这对他影响很大,想多跟孩子在一起的心情也能理解。但 Ryan 本来已经是众议院两个举足轻重的委员会——预算委员会和筹款委员会——的主席。这换成议长来担当,又会让任务加重多少,以至于要让他一口回绝呢?

据《纽约客》的介绍,现任议长 John Boehner 一年中有 200 天都在各地跑,就是为了拉捐款:

According to the Times, John Boehner spent two hundred days a year on the road, attending fund-raising events or visiting donors. And that doesn’t count the coddling he did in the greater D.C. area

没错,作为议长,一项重要的工作就是筹款,到各地筹款。不是为自己,而是为共和党和各议员。很多金主不在乎捐钱,但在乎一个面子。比如要是议长出面,这支票就写得痛快许多。所以很多时候,议长能为议员自己筹到更多的钱。

据 Bloomberg 分析,仅在 2014 年,Boehner 就为共和党筹到了 3500 万美元

The House speaker helped other candidates raise even more money by traveling to their districts and serving as a headliner for their campaigns.

在 2014 年最能筹款的委员会中,前 15 名里,只有 Boehner 的委员会是个人名义成立的。其他都是党派或工会,乃至 superPAC。这些钱,当然就用来帮助共和党和其候选人了。

The biggest beneficiaries were the National Republican Congressional Committee, which raises funds to support the party’s nominees, and Boehner’s own accounts that aided others.

于是,共和党方面同意,Ryan 当议长可以放弃一些筹款的责任

这可是一大让步。不仅是上千万美元的损失,议长能为议员去筹款,其实也是议长的政治资本。现在 Ryan 放弃了这一资本,以后就算当上了议长,能用来交易的筹码就少了许多。

但没办法,Ryan 是大家心中唯一的选择。

这不,大家就用了各种方法来劝他。上面是给好处给方便,像 Romney 就义正辞严地发表声明,不是为自己,是为党为国家,Ryan 你要当这个议长

“I wouldn’t presume to tell Paul what to do, but I do know that he is a man of ideas who is driven to see them applied for the public good,” Mr. Romney said. “Every politician tries to convince people that they are that kind of leader; almost none are — Paul is.”

当然,Ryan 也不是傻子。他不想落得前任的下场,所以最好上来就提条件说清,他不想去当一个窝囊的议长。按他自己的话,不想做火堆上的第三根木头。(前两根自然是 Boehner 和 McCarthy。)

“This is not a job I’ve ever wanted, I’ve ever sought. I came to the conclusion that this is a very dire moment, not just for Congress, not just for the Republican Party, but for our country.”

(还是 Romney 懂 Ryan,这段简直是把 Romney 送他的话又重复了一遍。)

所以,周二晚上,他在共和党议员的一个内部会议上提出了出选议长的条件:共和党议员中的三个团体要支持他:

he was insisting on the endorsement of three key groups: the (relatively) moderate Tuesday group, the mainstream conservative Republican Study Committee and the Freedom Caucus.

而且必需在周五之前答复:

Speaker John A. Boehner has scheduled internal Republican leadership elections for next Wednesday, essentially giving Republicans some wiggle room if the factions do not accede to Mr. Ryan’s request that they decide whether to support him by Friday.

Ryan 也表示,他不想做交易。他给出条件,做出原则性承诺,但不对任何细节进行讨论:

Ryan's confidants say he is not going to negotiate for a job he never sought, and that he has a record of conservative leadership that should be clear to every member of the GOP conference.

当然,这些话都是说给党内最保守的 Freedom Caucus 的人听的。

《洛杉矶时报》的一篇文章认为,Ryan 这样做也是认定了 Freedom Caucus 不是铁板一块,他的做法或许能瓦解对手。其中 Ryan 的最强硬要求:就是要改制,不能像现在这样随便就提出换议长的要求。

Even if Ryan does not win the official support of the Freedom Caucus, he may be able to peel away enough votes to assure success, and some caucus members are already voicing support for him.

Pew 前几天做了一个关于 Freedom Caucus 的分析,发现他们并不都是很保守,也以新进议员为主:

Ideologically speaking, they’re among the most conservative of House Republicans, though not all are on the rightmost end of the spectrum.

Freedom Caucus members also have spent decidedly less time in the House. Of the 36 identified members, 26 (72%) were first elected in 2010 or later, compared with 54% of other House Republicans.

《纽约时报》也做了类似的分析,538 网站则把 Boehner,McCarthy,和 Ryan 的立场放进去做了个比较

最终,在周三晚 Ryan 和 Freedom Caucus 的人见面,相当于是面试。据透露,Ryan 在原则上支持了 Freedom Caucus 的基本要求,比如调整 House Republican Steering Committee,增加委员会主席权力,遵重 Hastert Rule(必须多数共和党议员同意才提出议案供投票),不和 Obama 谈移民问题等。

Ryan 也做出让步,在当选前不讨论「换议长」动议的改革

Possible changes to the so-called “motion to vacate” will now come as part of a larger discussion of reworking internal party and House rules. Should he become House speaker, Ryan will set a deadline by which the House Republican Conference will change chamber and party rules.

Ryan 的要求还是很简单的「支持还是反对」:

At the same time, Ryan's message was simple: Take it or leave it. He wouldn't negotiate the specifics of any of these reforms in the context of a leadership election.

果然,虽然 Freedom Caucus 内部无法达到 80% 的支持率,让他们能正式在共和党内部投票中支持 Ryan,但有大约七成支持 Ryan,让他能在将来的众议院投票中通过。

The group stopped short of an official endorsement, which would have required 80 percent support, but members said a “supermajority” of the caucus would back a Ryan bid for speaker.

周三,Ryan 还获得了 Republican Study Committee 的支持,周四又获得了 Tuesday Group 的支持。

经过这一番角力,Ryan 终于上路了。但是很显然,他的这些谈判都是口头的,分歧的本质原因依然没有解决。到头来 Ryan 能否在议长的座位上坐住,没人知道。

O'Malley 的嗓子

周末民主党在爱荷华州的 Jefferson-Jackson dinner,Hillary 请来了 Katy Perry 助阵,那边 O'Malley 坐不住了,请不来人,自己拿了吉它唱了首 Taylor Swift

Raj Chetty

《华尔街日报》报道说,著名新锐经济学家 Raj Chetty 因为他的解决贫富差距的方案,而被 Hillary 和 Jeb 同时追逐

His research finds that upward mobility depends on government policies, a position common among Democrats, as well as on neighborhood churches and two-parent families, as Republicans contend.

Raj 的方法,是想办法增加差区的流动性,把穷人孩子送到流动性高的好区。

He now is working with the Obama administration on ways to encourage landlords in higher-opportunity neighborhoods to take in poor families by paying landlords more or guaranteeing rent payment.

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编辑于 2015-10-24

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